The hottest market as a whole was weak, with Shang

2022-10-15
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The market as a whole is weak, with Shanghai Rubber falling mainly

market overview

K-line chart of Japanese rubber index contract

the chart is the K-line trend chart of Japanese rubber index contract. (picture source: Wenhua Finance)

K-line chart of Shanghai Jiao main contract

the chart shows the K-line trend chart of Shanghai Jiao main contract. (picture source: Wenhua finance and Economics) the thermal properties of plastic materials in plastic thermoforming processing

the price of Shanghai glue fell mainly this week. The price of 1109, the main contract this week, broke through the low point of 32410 in the early stage, and closed at 31550 on Friday, down 3230 points from last Friday, a decrease of 9.3%. On the 3rd of the five trading days of this week, the price ended with a negative line. On Wednesday, the price had broken through the previous low. On Thursday, the price rebounded slightly, but it was close to the closing. The strength of the bulls was exhausted. On Friday, the price basically fell unilaterally, and the price hit a recent low again. Shanghai Jiaotong was generally weak, and the price k line was close to the 5-day moving average

Tokyo rubber market was closed for one day on Friday, and prices basically fell in the four trading days. On Thursday, the Japanese rubber index closed at 399.5 points, down 26.3 points or 6.18% from last Friday. This Sunday, the rubber index fell below the 400 point integer level, and the overall price was weak, close to the 5-day moving average

one week market analysis

the growth rate of China's tire production shrank significantly in the first quarter of 2011

the decline in the growth rate of automobile production and sales will gradually be transmitted to the level of tire production and sales, which will have a great impact on rubber demand. In the early stage, the tire factory was faced with great cost pressure. Before and after the tire price increase in early March, the rubber price began to fall rapidly, causing the tire dealers to have a strong wait-and-see mood, resulting in a weak sales situation. After the first quarter, it will also enter the off-season, and the willingness to purchase tires is not strong. Tire factories did not purchase too many raw materials in the process of rubber price plummeting. With the rapid recovery of dollar rubber, the cost pressure returns, which will easily cause problems after using domestic instruments for a period of time, which will have a negative impact. The willingness to purchase raw materials is also insufficient. It is transmitted to the demand level of natural rubber layer by layer, and will face a certain decline in demand growth

according to the tire production data of China in the first quarter of 2011, the tire output of China in the first quarter of this year was 169 million, with a year-on-year increase of 1.45%. Compared with the increase of 32.14% last year, the growth rate in the first quarter of this year was significantly reduced. China's radial tire production in the first quarter was 88.145 million, with a year-on-year increase of 12.28%. Compared with the growth rate of 42.2% in the same period last year, there was also a sharp decline

the impact of the Japanese earthquake affected the global automotive market

the "3.11" Japanese earthquake has been more than a month, and the deep impact of the interruption of the auto parts supply chain on the global automotive industry will begin to break out in a large area this month. Many Japanese auto enterprises overseas factories and even European and American auto enterprises have successively confirmed that they will shut down for this reason. After the earthquake and tsunami disaster in Japan, its manufacturing industry was almost paralyzed. Since March 11, Japan's automobile production has fallen by more than 500000. Automobile production is still declining, because until now, many task plants have shut down, and even those that restart have limited production due to parts shortages

on April 28, the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association (JAMA) released auto production data, which showed that in March 2011, Japanese auto companies' factories in Japan produced only 404000 cars, a year-on-year decrease of 57.3%. It is understood that the total domestic automobile production in Japan was 945000 in March last year

the earthquake in Japan has an impact on the auto market in the short term. The decline of auto production is bound to affect the demand for tires, and the price of natural rubber is bad in the short term

the price difference between us dollar rubber and Shanghai Rubber narrowed to the normal level

the price of rubber in Southeast Asia this week was mainly volatile. As of the end of this week, the contract price of Indonesian Rubber No. 20 on the Singapore exchange for the month was US $4570, down US $280 from last week. The compound import price is around 35000 yuan, and the price difference with the main contract of Shanghai Jiaotong is reduced to about 3200 yuan. From the perspective of the price difference between the composite import price and the main contract of Shanghai Jiaotong, the price difference has returned to the normal level in the past two weeks, narrowing from the maximum price difference of 6000 yuan to the current price difference of 3000 yuan. From the perspective of historical price difference, the price difference of yuan is normal. The price of compound imported natural rubber this week has been lower than the monthly spot price of natural rubber on the Shanghai exchange. Obviously, domestic rubber is more attractive, but the rubber used for tires is basically No. 20 standard rubber, so downstream tire manufacturers still need to purchase imported rubber. This kind of composite import price discount will be repaired soon

the new rubber will be on the market soon, and the tight supply situation will be alleviated

from a seasonal point of view, the month of each year is the period when the supply of natural rubber is the least, which is basically the stage of de stocking, while the monthly supply of natural rubber is gradually increasing. At present, the supply is at the stage of cutting new rubber from the minimum of the whole year, and the tight supply situation will be alleviated to a certain extent. From the perspective of inventory, it is currently at the lowest level of the whole year. As of April 29, the rubber inventory on the Shanghai exchange was 14717 tons, declining for several consecutive weeks. This week, the registered warehouse receipts of rubber futures on the exchange decreased by 85 to 7015. There are indeed seasonal factors in inventory changes. From the perspective of historical inventory changes, inventory basically began to rise gradually after July, and approached the annual high after November

operation suggestions

the trend of rubber prices at home and abroad this week was weak, mainly because the growth rate of downstream automobile production and sales fell, weakening the previous expectation that Thailand might reduce production due to weather factors. From the perspective of time cycle, it has entered the second quarter, the fundamental advantages of Tianjiao have been reduced, and a new round of Tianjiao cutting cycle will be gradually launched. Every month, it will enter the peak season of rubber production, but when it turns to the vertical position, the production and sales of downstream cars and tires will enter the off-season from the peak season. This week, the quotation of all latex in Shanghai market was stable at around 39000 yuan, the price difference between spot and futures widened, the attraction of futures latex increased, and the digestion speed of inventory accelerated

this week, the price of 09, the main domestic rubber contract, fell below the previous low, and the price k line fell along the 5-day average, which was generally short. From the technical point of view, after the domestic rubber price experienced a big a wave decline of 42895-32410, the Shanghai Rubber September contract pushed the big b wave rebound peak to near the 50% golden section level of 37700 through the form of small a-b-c, and then continued to fall. We believe that the big C wave decline has begun, and the first support level is the integer level of 30000 yuan. We suggest that those who have established short positions in the early stage continue to hold them, and those who have not established positions can establish short orders when the price rebound fails

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